Post no 2:FFA vs AFL: FIFA World Cup is a great marketing opportunity. AFL & NRL will risk missing out!

(Please also refer to the previous blog on this topic posted on 11th December)

The FIFA World Cup will be staged in Australia regardless of short sided panic driven attempts by the likes of Andrew Demetriou to derail Australia's bid. BUT Australia's bid will be successful ONLY IF the GODS want it to be. Here are the 4 major players:

1) Major Group 1: FIFA, the not much loved powerful international body (due to its lax treatment of cheating by players on the field) wants Australia to stage the WC because:

a) FIFA is interested in the untapped markets of INDIA/CHINA in particular & the rest of Asia in general (2/3 of the world population & a fast rising living standards)

b) Its rotation policy will mean that Oceania has to be given a chance as a continent to stage the games now that Africa will be doing so in 2010.

2) Major Group 2: Frank Lowy & the Federal Government: Mr Lowy & Kevin Rudd have worked tirelessly to position Australia as the ideal location to achieve a win win situation for all interested parties & we need their tireless lobbying & support to continue for the next few years. Our bid emphasises:

a) Australia's time zone being closer to Asia's making it easier to reach the untapped Asian TV audiences compared to Europe/USA, and hence better potential advertising revenue (and higher TV rights for FIFA)

b) Australia's infrastructure/political stability (NSW Govt aside!) & track record of successful large events management

3) Major Group 3: the Media giants like News Ltd & multinational sponsors of WC: they see the World Cup in Australia as a giant opportunity for marketing & promotion to football mad Asian audiences. (2006 WC in Germany had an approximate cumulative audience of 24 billion). By 2018/2022 Asia's prosperity means millions more TV sets & potentially 100s of millions of more TV viewers per match

What has to happen is of course agreement amongst all of the above, and reasonable compensation to other codes for altering their seasons for the year when it happens.

The "Poofters, Sheilas, Wogs" strategy by "football haters" in Australia to protect their miserable market share is no longer effective because:

a) Many AFL & NRL fans are second generation Europeans/ethnics of "Soccer loving" parents. These fans would welcome & support the bid for FIFA WC Australia
b) Many younger Aussies now attend soccer matches during their travels around Europe & have been exposed to the great atmosphere of competitive football
c) Internet & Pay TV are fast educating sports fans about football and creating new fans and/or making more Australians less negative or neutral towards football!

FFA vs AFL: Andrew Demetriou's strategy to embarrass the FFA & derail Australia's bid to stage the FIFA World Cup will backfire

The AFL CEO Andrew Demetriou has caused major uproar & controversy due to his myopic stance on Australia's bid to stage the FIFA Football World Cup in 2018 or 2022. trying to jealously derail Australia's bit for the FIFA WC 2018 or 2022.

There are various aspects of this controversy which have to be carefully considered:

It is fair to say that as the CEO of AFL, Andrew Demetriou's main responsibility is to make sure the AFL season is a success both on & off the field, protect & expand AFL's market share & profile& promote AFL. He's not responsible or has any moral or legal obligation to support or assist any rival code's aspirations.

At the same time, football codes & indeed other organised sports must be reasonably compensated for the potential loss of income if/when the World Cup is staged in Australia. FFA, The Federal Government & even fans acknowledge & appreciate this point.

However, the timing of Demetriou's comments (and the less publised claim by Shane Richardson of South Sydney) was clearly designed to destabilise Australia's bid because the final day for submissions was Friday 11th.

Sports administrators like Demetriou who are in charge of sports such as AFL which do not have a large international following or profile (and I mean no disrespect to the code by saying so) risk over stepping their authority with inflammatory comments which are designed to embarrass the administration of a rival code which is engaged in the complex web of international diplomacy & power play. Because in doing so, Demetriou's words may go as far as embarrassing the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who had been lobbying tirelessly to advance Australia's bid as a matter of national interest at the same time as Demetriou's comments embarrassed Australia & the FFA on an international basis. (Just check various football websites to see the adverse impact the comments had on Australia's profile) Mr Demetriou & AFL, with their small minded sport administration minds do not seem to have Australia's national interest at heart & are unwilling to acknowledge the positive aspects of staging the World Cup lest it makes fringe players like them look totally irrelevant.

Therefore Demetriou is either a trouble maker or is trapped in a world of small time sport administration & hence unable to grasp the scale & popularity of the FIFA World Cup. Demetriou's sporting world has a fan base of at best 20 million, or even smaller (assuming all of Australia & Ireland follow AFL!). The significance of Melbourne with its sporting infrastructure & passionate fans is massive. Demetriou & his backers are using this as a way of blackmailing the FFA & Australian fans for that matter. What they are forgetting is that AFL has contractual agreements with various venues but does not own Telstra Stadium & the MCG (& has a complex agreement with the privately owned Eithad Stadium). i.e. AFL can not, must not & will not hold the fans & the FFA at ransom over its use of various venues!

Staging the FIFA World Cup is the most sought after event in the world. It has shown to have significant positive cultural & financial impact. The cumulative worldwide audience of the World Cup in South Africa in 2010 is estimated to easily be more than the combined accumulative worldwide audience of Sydney 2000 Olympics and Melbourne 2006 Commonwealth games! That is why Prime Ministers get personally involved in the lobbying & promoting process. The likes of Andrew Demetriou have no place in the process, not unless their ulterior motives demand they get involved.

The AFL Board & Andrew Demetriou conveniently ignore the time line of 9 to 13 years to plan for the event as well as the cultural, financial & economic significance of hosting the FIFA World Cup.

For example, the USA bid documents (rivaling Australia) claim staging the World Cup in 2018 may bring as much as $5 billion to the USA economy. (please see

http://www.gousabid.com/news/entry/study-shows-hosting-fifa-world-cup-in-2018-or-2022-could-bring-in-5-billion).

World Cup 2006 played a major role in both improving Germany's international standing & perception as a friendly nation & was credited with helping to bring the recession to an end in Germany due to its major impact on creating employment in industries from construction to tourism.

On the other hand, AFL Board knows the significance of Melbourne as the Sporting Capital of Australia, both in terms of facilities and its passionate supporters. Melbourne has an integral role in the bid & the event, but Andrew Demetriou is neither the Premier of Victoria nor the owner of the MCG & Telstra Stadium (although AFL has a contract & ownership arrangement with the privately owned stadium!) Petty rivalry & jealousy between various codes must be set aside for a national cause, in order to stage the greatest single event (sporting or otherwise) in the world, the same way Australia came together & made the Sydney Olympics & Melbourne Commonwealth Games successful events.

This is imperative because FIFA is an extremely powerful organisation (in fact too powerful). In 2006, during the last World Cup, FIFA accounts show a gross operating revenues in excess of $800 million. In non World Cup years it's revenue is around $250 million. Getting to stage a FIFA World Cup is a huge financial, marketing, lobbying & preference enticing task which at times can the world of international politics look like child play!

FIFA's power comes from 1) huge media revenue due to football's irresistible marketability around the world, and 2) its vast membership base which currently stands at 208 Federations.

In comparison, United Nations currently has 192 members! (FIFA grants membership to countries/territories which for political reasons are not granted UN membership, e.g. Taiwan & Phalestine)

Of course, neither the worldwide popularity of football nor its powerful representative body FIFA should interfere with the rightful plans of any other sport. But for a sport that runs its fixtures from March to August, Demetriou can easily start to plan to have the code ready in time to have the 2018 or 2022's Calendar altered, the same way school holidays, various sporting leagues & daylight saving were altered during the Sydney Olympics or Melbourne Commonwaelth games! If not, it simply demonstrates incompetence on the part of Demetriou & in his team if they find it impossible to plan to alter a season in 9 or 13 years time!

If Demetriou can't plan for that far ahead then he is showing his administrative incompetence & should resign!

Mr Detemriou & the AFL Board must be careful not to over estimate their code's support base & consider the adverse PR risks involved in their risky strategy. They risk alienating the supporters they need for second AFL teams to succeed, especially in Sydney.

1. AFL does not have as strong a support base base in Australia's Eastern seaboard as it does in Victoria, SA & WA. League, Union, Soccer & cricket are still more popular than AFL in Sydney & Brisbane. Western Suburbs of Sydney is a hotbed of Soccer & Rugby League. If AFL are seen to be derailing the FFA World Cup bid, the adverse PR effect may jeapordise the viability of the planned second AFL team in Sydney.

2. Many loyal AFL supporters in the stronger AFL markets are of European ethnic origins. In fact, AFL supporters of e.g. Greek, Italian, Maltese & Croatian background would like to see Australia stage the FIFA World Cup more passionately than many non AFL supporters. Derailing the bid may also have an adverse PR effect on the AFL stronger markets.

3. Let's not be so myopic! Would Andrew Demetriou have stated the same objection if Melbourne were to be granted the next Olympics which is usually held in August?

4. Andrew Demetriou's legacy will be forever tarnished if he ends up depriving the sport loving people of Melbourne from staging the FIFA World Cup final because Sydney or even Brisbane will pounce at the opportunity to take the final of the world's biggest & most popular sporting event away from Melbourne, and potentially with it Melbourne's title of the sporting capital of Australia

In conclusion, whilst it is ok to demand a reasonable compensation for potential loss of revenue, & FFA & FIFA must acknowledge this fact, various football code adminstrators must understand that blackmail tactics to protect their patch will backfire & they can no longer supress the popularity of soccer in Australia by using the "shielas, poofters & wogs" redneck strategy! Not only more of us are travelling overseas & get to witness the wonders & fantastic atmosphere of football matches in person, we also have access to the internet & pay tv & hence a much broader exposure to the popularity of football across the globe.

Soccer is here to stay & it will challenge other codes regardless of whether Andrew Demetriou & the likes manage to dent our bid to stage the "World Game!" But staging the World Cup is not just about rivalry between codes Mr Demetriou! Wake up to your conscience & acknowledge its national & international significance, and the fact that a united national effort is required if Australia's bid is to succeed.

So, Go ahead! Andrew Demetriou! Give us your best Aerial Ping Pong Shot! It will bounce back & blow in your face so fast that you won't know what hit you!

Ancelotti is proving his genius stroke at Chelsea

OK! I admit! I was amongst the doubters at the beginning of the season! I suggested that it would take Carlo Ancelotti at least one season to get familiar with the peculiarity & fast pace of the EPL! Many of us have seen it time and time again, coaches & players from continental Europe failing or taking their time to settle to the English game.

But not Ancelotti! Years of learning & experience as a player for Milan & Italy, combined with his natural ability to understand & dissect the tactical aspects of the game and his Champions League winning experience as a coach have made Ancelotti a superb coach!

And this is in a year when Chelsea have in fact been outspent by most of their domestic & mainland European rivals. Ancelotti has managed to make full use of individual and collective skills of Lampard, Ballack, Deco, Malouda & Essien. With those at his disposal & Drogba & Anelka striking a deadly understanding between them, Ancelotti has made Chelsea an attractive and lethal attacking force similiar to the Barcelona of the recent times, and much easier to enjoy than his AC Milan.

Ancelotti has continued to refine the art of "Modesty in success" at Stamford Bridge that started with the Big Phil (without success) and continued with the master Hiddink. As a result Morinho bashers who couldn't stand Morinho's arrogance (and still can't at Inter Milan, I know because I am one of them) have warmed to Ancelotti & the stylish & entertaining Chelsea side.

Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal, barcelona, real Madrid and teh rest: watch out! the Tsunami of Chelsea is coming to get you, and this year it most probably will!

Chelsea fans, your time has come to concur Europe ....with your heads high.....it will be a deserving achievement.

World Cup qualifier playoffs: Ireland lose to "Hand of FIFA", whilst the "Gus Hiddink" legend is shattered by the minnows of Slovenia

Two major news items made the main football headlines across the world this morning, one full of the astonishing & simple beauty of football, "The people's game", & the other a story of the tarnished image of the stubborn, out of touch, money chasing FIFA acting like a sect trying to protect itself from criticism & investigation, and the perception that its  has sold the "Beautiful Game's soul to sponsorship money.

a. The smallest & wealthiest of the former Yoguslav regions, Slovenia made history by stunning the legendary Gus Hiddink's Russian side & qualifying for the World Cup this morning. In doing so, Slovenia achieved something even more profound, something that stunned the rest of the football world: . It exposed & shattered the legend that was Gus Hiddink!

The "Legend of Gus Hiddink" in no more! The mythical legend "Gus Hiddink"was born when he helped PSV win the European Cup in 1988. He then took Holland to the brink of WC final in 1998 and repeated the same feat with the much lesser footballing nation of South Korea in 2002. He grew even more in stature by taking Australia to the brink of a quarter final birth in WC 2006 in Germany, Russia to the semi final of the European Championships last year, and helping Chelsea back on track by winning the FA Cup final with them whilst missing out on a Champions League birth by a last gasp goal by the magical Inesta.

All the big footballing nations, coaches,clubs & players were in awe of Gus Hiddink & his magic touch, and unable to stop him. The first cracks in the legend appeared when Germany comfortably beat Hiddink's Russia 2-1 in Russia in the first leg, and then again 1-0 last month. But it took the tiny Slovenia this morning to bring joy to true football fans worldwide. They beat Russia & its legendary cooach Gus Hiddink. In the process they demonstrate the intrinsic beauty of the game & its magical moments, and the fact that much love Gus Hiddink is after all human!

b. Whilst the beautiful events above were occuring, the ugly side of the game showed its ugly head & the Republic of Ireland got eliminated, literally in the hands of Thiery Henry, who shamelessly redirected the ball by his hand and created an equaliser for william Gallas & France & its undeserving coach Demenech.

In my view, Ireland lost to the "Hand of FIFA". FIFA is starting to act like an exclusive sect. It fools the fans into accepting what it offers as all that there is, and meanwhile rolls in money & pays its undecisive vote grabbing self serving executives from Sep Blatter down millions of dollars in remuneration & fringe benefits.  FIFA is distinctly creating the perception amongst fans that it is ok for crucial matches to be decided in favour of more profitable sponsorship outcomes.

If the above comments sound too harsh, then FIFA must at start clamping down on all forms of chating on the field by threatening to reverse results and/or order a rematch in order to deter players from acting so shamefully. Thiery Henry is not the first player who acted in an unsporting fashion and won't be the last. Players cheat in all shapes & forms, from diving, to throwing themselves on the ground holding their faces when hit by a feather, to handballing & getting away with it. Just ask Maradona and his "Hand of God" in 1986 against England. Remember the shameful behaviour of AC Milan's Brazilian goalkeeper Dida a few years ago in the Champion League?

Players do this totally shameful acts simply because they know they can get away with deceit because they are confident FIFA will not clamp down or punish them! All FIFA has to do is to order a few matches to be replayed & before too long coaches will come down hard on any player who acts in such shameful manner as the infinte examples of the last 15 years or so suggest.

If FIFA continues to hold the line that all is working in the interest of the game & its broader appeal, and it is not hostage to sponsorship money & its greedy self serving executives, then it must acknowledge the short comings of the current model & the need for  introduction of technology assisted refereeing.

Otherwise, it is only fair to accuse FIFA of selling out the game to generate sponsorship money & favouring teams/players with more sponsorship dollars appeal.

Liverpool & Bayern struggling in the absence of their creative playmakers & lack of goals against defensive teams

At the beginning of the season, I had great hopes for my two favourite football teams, Bayern Munich & Liverpool. I predicted Liverpool would win their first EPL title and their first since 1989. I had even higher hopes for my beloved Bayern predicting they would recapture the Bundesliga title and would even get to the CL final!

And what disastrous campaigns  both are having! Both are suffering from similar problems:

Injuries to Gerrard & Ribery respectively (although good to see Gerrard back in the second half against Birmingham)
Inability to score to win against packed defenses even with the lion share of possession in many crucial matches
Injury to the likes of Torres & Toni
And most crucially, players' inability to adapt to Rafa & Van Gaal's ever revolving tactical variations & player rotation systems (although Van Gaal has only been around this year whilst Rafa is notorious for doing this)

Both teams are now in serious danger of missing qualification to the second round of the CL, and losing too much ground to the leading teams in their respective domestic leagues. (both are quite a few points behind already)

Liverpool fans love Rafa & so far have stood by him, whilst Bayern fans have already started booing their team and murmurs of demands of retribution against the coach are beginning to spread.

In case of Bayern, whilst I was never a fan of Van Gaal & thought Frank Rijkaard was the best man for the job, I believe the legendary management team of Rumminegge & Hoeness got their transfer strategy badly wrong last summer and miscalculated some great opportunities in the process and as a result they should reappraise their strategy going forward.

As for Liverpool, I am not sure what the immediate solution is but Rafa has now had one win out of nine (6 losses) and surely the good will towrds him has its limitations.

And as a die hard fan of both clubs, I am still hoping for a major turn around in form & results by Christmas!

Florention Perez's Real Madrid sequal "Galacticos 2" has so far fared no better than most Hollywood sequals! Big budget & poor results compared to the original!

President Perez's sequal to "Galacticos I" is so far turning out like most sequals in the real Hollywood style! Lots of razamataz, big names, big budget......and poor quality & returns compared to the original!

Yes! I know! It's still early days & a star studded team of so called champion players needs time to mould into a champion team......like Barcelona! (sorry! couldn't help the jibe!)

Real lost 4-0 in a Cup tie to a lower division team this morning. It seems even after the arrival of the new galacticos, Real continue to suffer from the psychological inferiority complex that started during Barcelona's CL win 3 years ago & made them into the panick $400 plus shopping spree last summer after Barcelona's convincing CL final win over Manchester United.

And to makes matters even more strange, Real seems to be simply an ordinary team without Ronaldo! This in fact annoys me! Because the likes of Kaka, Benzema, Raul & co are every invh as good if not better than the pretty boy!

What is going to happen if AC Milan win the return CL match in Milan next week? Will "Berlosconi wannabe" aka PEREZ & his galacticos take the blame? Or will the coach Pellegrini be sacked as a scapegoat?..and then Perez will admit he should have listened earlier & sacked the coach much sooner???

At any case, let's hope for the good of the game Real's sequal to "Galacticos I" at least doesn't succeed on the pitch! They can have the box office in order to pay their stars!

But on the pitch, it's great team spirit, clever tactics, inspirational coaching & a combination of talent, blood, sweat & tears that surely deserve success. Afterall, they are the ingredients of what makes football the "Beautiful Game"!

What is holding Bayern Munich back from being a serious contender to win the Champions League again?

Bayern Munich are statistically amongst the Top 5 most successful football Clubs in Europe. Only Real Madrid, Liverpool & AC Milan have won the European/CL Trophy more than Bayern. Bayern are also regularly amongst the Top 5 or 10 top clubs in the world in terms of turnover as well as one of the Top 5 best supported Clubs in Europe.

However, unlike the financially reckless owners of some of the big Clubs in England, Italy & Spain who have always been willing to grab trophies & glory at any expense, and in attempting to do so have put their clubs under immense financial pressure and huge debt burden, Bayern Munich have always been too conservative & at times seem to have sacrificied trophies & glory for the sake of remaining financially sound.

This has of course at times irked their demanding supporters who at the very least expect parity with other top clubs in Europe, and made some of their highly sought after players to demand a move to the "glamour clubs" mentioned above.

Bayern have in fact in occasions splashed huge sums in recent years on the likes of Klose, Toni, Ribery and very recently Robben. But these have always been in a much more measured way compared to for e.g. Real Madrid's Galactico mark 2 by Perez & co.

This has meant that Bayern have once again finishedd the decade with only one single European final appearance to show for, the CL final win against valencia in 2001, a life time ago in footballing terms in the eyes of denmanding & passionate supporters.

But in my opinion, the conservative transfer policy has overall been for the long term good of the club and most of the decions have been sound (The poor deciosn to let Lucio & Ze Roberto leave last summer was a major exception. A few more top players and the team is as good or at least as competative as any of the top clubs in Europe.

I believe the major factor that is holding Bayern's progress is its frequent change of Managers & coaching staff & not allowing the head coaches enough time to implement their tactical vision. Just look at what Hitzfeld achieved with Bayern by having the luxury of time! I am talking about employing a world class tactician on a FIVE year contract as a minimum & giving him flexibility, time & space to develop & implement his system, i.e. emulating what the likes of Manchester United, Liverpool & Arsenal have allowed their Managers.

Magath & Klinsman did not have that luxury. Let's hope Van Gaal (although I am not a big fan & personally preferred Rijkaard)gets the support & patience from Rumminegge & Hoeness to develop & implement his ideas.

Bayern have the money, influence, players, support & prestige to be back on top. All they need is patience with their managers!

My predictions for the major European Leagues for the new Season

Well, so far, albeit at this early stage, my predictions in my extended review of the new EPL season have not worked out too well! But it's only the early days!

Here are my predictions for the winners of other major leagues in Europe for the 2009-2010 season:

Bundesliga (Germany): Bayern Munchen (who else!)but competition will be stiff

Serie A (Italy): Inter Milan
Juventus have not bought sufficient quality players, and Milan have lost Kaka on top of that, to be able to challenge Inter Milan,s supremacy of recent seasons.

Inter on the other hand, as evident by their demolition of Milan on the opening the of the season, have bought the Brazilian Captain Lucio from Bayern, and swapped the over rated Ibrahimovic for the brilliant E'to, making them even more dominant, although European glory will continue to be out of their reach.

Primera Division (Spain): barcelona: As I have stated in my previous postings, Barcelona should be able to AND will embarrass Real Madrid's Perez and his extravagant money wasting shopping spree of "Galacticos" by winning the Primera Division again!

The 4th spot and relegation places are the hardest to predict in the EPL 2009-2010 Season

The EPL season will start in mid August. It has been another eventful off season with the biggest news in England being the departure of Ronaldo to Real Madrid and arrival of Ancelotti as the new coach at the rotating doors of Chelsea. Blogs and commentary of predictions for the new season are under way. In my view, there will be a few reasonably certainties which are easy to predict. Here they are:

Liverpool & Manchester United will be the main two contenders for the title again this year. Liverpool have lost Alonso but replaced him with the talented Aquilani. Sir Alex may have lost Ronaldo and Tevez, but has the ability to get the best out of Michael Owen. However, I think it is time for Liverpool to win the Premiership for the first time, 21 years after their last league title.

Chelsea, under yet again another (albeit experienced) coach new to the English game, and with an aging squad will be hovering around and will have a chance should Manchester United or Liverpool slip. However, I would still like to see a tactical approach to accommodate a Ballack/Lampard/Deco combination. If Ancelotti manages to do this, the effect may be irresistibly powerful.

As for the rest, and notice I did not mention Arsenal above, the following are my predictions:

1. Arsen Wenger's young Arsenal side will not have enough depth and experience to fend off the Top 4 wannabees this year like they did last year with Aston Villa and later in the season Everton.

The Gunners have not signed any new quality "experienced" players. No matter how entertaining the young players will play under the guidance of the magnificent Wenger, Fabregas, Arshavin, Gallas and other senior players will not be able to fully eliminate the lack of consistency which will catch up with Arsenal this year and they will lose them their "top 4" mantle for the first time in many years.

The fact that Wenger this week made the highly unusual statement ..."qualification for Champions League is not essential to Arsenal's finances"...shows nerves are already twitching at Arsenal!

2. Everton and Aston Villa will still be competitive but Moyes and O'Neill will still need to resort to getting the best out of their limited squads and hope injuries do not wreck their season.

This year Everton will need Moyes' magic and luck to reproduce a Top 5 finish. Aston Villa meanwhile will need O'Neill's magic but to also get over the loss of influencial Gareth Barry to Manchester City.

Both teams will be in the Top 8 by the season's end but will they be able the crack Top 4?

3. Manchester City, with all their money, are only managing to sign left overs from the big European Clubs' wish lists. I am not however suggesting the likes of Barry, Tevez, Santa Cruz, Robinho, Given, Adebayor, Bellamy etc are not great players. But none are in the "Galactico" level of popularity to give the Club the worldwide exposure which the new owners of Manchester City are hoping for.

a) Whilst I respect and like Mark Hughes, I am also not sure if he is the right person for such a difficult position and doubt whether he will manage to stay in the job till the end of the season. He did a great job of making Blackburn a competitive team. But what is being ask of him here is not exactly in the same level as his achievements up to now.

b) It is no longer easy to simply become a global name overnight by throwing money around as it was when Abramovich took over Chelsea,

c) Chelsea was already a semi glamorous Club due to its location in London and the likes of Guillet, Viali and Zola, and winning the Cup Winners Cup in the late 90s by the time.

d) However, the main problem with Manchester City is that even if they overcome everything else and Hughes moulds the players into a compact unit, Manchester City will always have to deal with the huge shadow over their head in the form of Manchester United.

4. That leaves the London trio of Spurs, West Ham and the much improved and impressive Fulham to fight for the remaining Top 10 finishes.

5. The relegation battle this year will potentially be the most exciting of all time! I make this claim, because two of the main contenders for relegation last year survived the battle! This makes the field of candidates for relegation the largest in the living memory:

Hull and Stoke are still in the EPL this year but will have to count on every point to survive again. However, they have immediate EPL experience in their survival battle to count on, whilst the newly promoted Wolves are yet to survive the EPL more than one season and it remains to be seen whether Birmingham will be as gritty as they were under Steve Bruce in their last successful spell in the EPL.

Burnley are making their EPL debut and first appearance in the top flight since 1976, but are a Club with rich footballing history, one of the founding English League Clubs and one of the few who have won all four major English League Championships.

To add to the above list, it takes a bad start, a few injuries to crucial players, and a loss of confidence for the likes of Sunderland, Portsmuth and Wigan to find themselves struggling. At the end, most of the usual strugglers have a better chance of taking valuable points from their relegation rivals this year than at anytime in the past as the bottom teams are more evenly matched this year.

It is hard to predict the teams most likely to be relegated, but I think Burnley, Hull and Wolves will be the most likely, closely followed by Stoke City.

This brings me to the end of this post, and the time to predict the hardest of them all this year: Who will end up as the fourth team and get the potential lucrative entry to the Champions League:

A glance at the respective squads and level of experience of the contenders tells me that if Mark Hughes and his team get it right, Manchester City on paper has the capacity to make the leap forward into Top 4. Everton and Aston Villa simply do not have the depth in their squads to match Manchester City. However, any slip from Manchester City or any of the other pretenders, and Wenger and his young squad will steal the 4th spot again.

At any case, another exciting EPL is awaiting us. It's a league which in terms of technical and tactical ability is far from the best in Europe. That accolade goes to Spain, and then Germany in my view, especially considering that EPL laggs behind Spain and Germany in average goal per game and average attendance per game (although it sometimes beats Spain in attendance averages).

Nevertheless, EPL is the most exciting and popular football league in the world and makes compelling viewing. Enjoy! and may your team does well, as long as Liverpool wins the title this year! :)

Are other big club Managers jealous of Perez and Real? Will Real's strategy of shuting other big teams out of the transfer market work?

Question: Are the likes of Berlusconi (Milan), Beckenbauer (Bayern), Ferguson (Manchester Utd, Wenger (Arsenal) and Laporta (Barcelona) simply jealous of Perez and Real, or do they have a an important point to make in their criticism of Perez and his outlandish spending this season?

Question: In practical terms, is Perez doing anything different to what Abramovich has attempted to do at Chelsea, or the Arab owners of Manchester City are doing?

Question: Hasn't the practice of assembling the world best players in teh one club been attempted by other clubs as far back as mid 70s (eg Barcelona buying Cruyff and Neeskens in the 70s, and Maradona and many others in the 80s?, or Milan with their Dutch trio and other stars last decade?)

Question: Is all the commotion anything but professional jealousy?

The answer to the above questions is Yes & No!

Yes, this has been attempted many times before, most recently in case of Real in the early 200s with the Galacticos, Chelsea and Manchester City. But whilst professional jealousy certainly plays a part, it is not the only reason many people are worried about the reckless behaviour Perez and Real's Board.

Of course, every coach, and most fans would love to have the likes of Benzema, Kaka and Ronaldo playing for their team. But that is where the extent of the professional jealousy stops.

Perez is guilty of:
- Taking the "working man's game" to its ultimate breaking point
- If unsuccessful in "Buying" trophies, will once again take Real Madrid to the brink of bankruptcy
- Potentially shifting a huge amount of TV/Merchandising money from other leagues to Real, and starving smaller leagues even more than before of essential funds

What is the fun of watching football when a team "buys" its way to glory? How different is is it to match fixing in practical terms? How competitive are things when even Sir Alex Ferguson admits that Perez and his high spending strategy has made it difficult for the likes of Manchester Utd to stay competitive in the transfer market this season?

But football is a funny game, and coaches like Ferguson are clever tacticians! They will get more out of their players and will beat Real with fewer resources but more discipline.

I predict Real's success rate, considering the huge capital outlay, will in relative terms be no more than Abramovich's Chelsea have achieved so far. When/if my prediction comes true, Perez will go down in history as a typical Spanish "Madman" Club President.

The unfortunate thing is however, that he might take the Club and even the beautiful game down with him! Let's hope the game is stronger than money and the mad businessmen wasting it!

Money may win Real Madrid a few trophies, but it won't buy them lasting glory!

Real Madrid and their newly elected President Florentino Perez are once again making a mockery out of the "World game" by attempting to buy themselves glory.

Real under Perez's leadership did the same thing a few years ago with the now famous "Galacticos" policy. Perez went shopping and bought amongst many others, Figo, Zidane, Beckham and Owen at ridiculous fees to bring back the glory days to Madrid. They won the Premiera League a few times and a CL trophy (or perhaps two depending on how the time period of his presidency is looked at.....and then they started to believe Real had actually organically made it all happen and guess what happened next?

They started to fade away after the 2002 CL win, Perez lost his position, and they have been rather ordinary every since, blaming coach after coach for their failure to plan for the future and develop youngsters through the ranks.

Now Perez has once again been elected with the promise to "buy" Real's way back into the history books at any cost and in a totally shameless fashion. And as the nature of Club Presidency in Spain dictates, Perez has to be flashier and more outrageous this time. So, he's paid more than 200m Euros for Ronaldo and Kaka, both of whom will reportedly earn more than 300 thousand euros a week after tax.

In doing so, Perez hopes to get enough time to "buy" a few trophies for Real, before his ego once again clashes with the Board's collective egos, the coach gets blamed, and Ronaldo starts throwing his usual narcissistic tantrums!

You might challenge me by asking the same question about other rich European clubs. Chelsea and their appearing overnight "funny Money divided between so few Putin supporters" Russian money aside, who have as yet failed to buy their European glory (thanks to John Terry slipping on the ball in last year's CL Final), most other big European clubs such as AC Milan, Barcelona, Manchester United, Liverpool, Juventus and Bayern all try to buy the best players in their desperate attempts to get their hands on the CL trophy.

That is a fair comment. However, none go crazy like Perez and Real do, and all try their hands on developing some of their young talent as well. Take Barcelona and its Youth Academy or Manchester United and Sir Alex for instance. Love him or loath him(and I belong to the later group) Sir Alex has an uncanny ability to nurture young talent into his first team (endless list of Neville brothers, Beckham, Giggs, Ronaldo, Butt etc) as well as letting restless players leave. Even the self serving, self promoting Berlusconi at AC Milan never behaved as shamelessly as Perez is at Real.

At the end of it all, Perez is simply taking the Beautiful game further and further towards disaster whilst trying to buy his way into glory of the history books.
In years to come, rest assured Real fans, and football fans worldwide will remember the expensive players who won Real the trophies. But Perez will be judged as one of the architects of "prostituting the passion of the beautiful game in order to buy himself glory"

The Socceroos qualified for the World Cup 2010 in an emphatic if not stylish fashion

Congratulations to the mighty Socceroos, Pim Verbeek, FFA and all backroom staff and all supporters of the mighty Socceroos for their back to back qualification for the world's biggest sporting event, the FIFA World Cup.

Thank God! Gone are the days when the Socceroos and their ever loyal supporters had to wait for the nail biting matches to determine the last qualification place! The Socceroos were the second nation to qualify for next year's World Cup on Saturday(in reality Japan and Australia qualified around the same time as the first two qualifying nations).

Since taking over as the Socceroos Coach, Pim Verbeek time and time again reminded everyone in Australia, in his slightly arrogant but endearing media interviews, that he was not recruited to deliver a team capable of playing beautiful attractive football! He was there to make sure Australia qualified for the World Cup! And now he has delivered, albeit by producing a regimented, disciplined and not so pretty to watch team which has shown itself capable of defending well and at times snatching crucial last gasp victories. A trait that all successful teams must possess.

Australia have qualified from the admittedly easier of the two Asian Group comfortably and in a dominant fashion. So far, with two matches left to play, Australia are also the only team in the world not having conceded a single goal in their qualifying campaign. However, their performances have been inconsistent, at times painfully hard to watch, and on occasions breath taking. Pim Verbeek will hopefully use the remaining time between now and the WC to fine tune the team into a more consistent unit.

The next immediate task however is to make sure the fans in Australia are not taken for granted between now and WC 2010. The Australian fans deserve to see all the available stars in their long awaited celebration game in Sydney against Bahrain in June. By fielding a very strong squad and providing an attractive attacking game next Wednesday, Ben Buckley and the FFA can avoid repeating the absolute PR disaster of last year's second class Socceroos 0-1 loss to China and risk alienating adoring fans and their hard earned cash during the current financial crisis. On top of this, the team can take valuable points out of its encounter with Bahrain and Japan, without the pressure of qualifying points at stake.

Having said all that, like many other Socceroos fans, I have been following their qualifying campaigns since 1973 and have travelled the emotional roller coaster with them over the years. It therefore fills me with great joy and pride to see them qualify as one of the very first nations for the next WC. Congratulations to the players, Pim Verbeek, Graham Arnold, all backroom staff, the FFA, and last but not least all the fans in the Green and Gold army.

With a little bit more luck than we got against Italy in 2006, we might even go all the way to the final in 2010!

Barcelona's CL triumph means so much in so many ways

The magnificent team of Pepe Guardiola, the Catalan giants Barcelona have deservedly once again become the European Champions. They comprehensively outmanouvered Alex Ferguson's side in the final in Rome, and frankly if it wasn't for the ever reliant Van der Saar in goal (and the post denying the magnific Xavi), Barcelona could have won by a margin which would have potentially collapsed and destroyed the legend of Manchester Utd which Alex Ferguson has masterfully built up over the past twenty plus years.

This is a great win which means so much to so many fans in so many ways all over the world. For one thing, not only Manchester United's legendary luck did not save them this time, the way Barcelona dominated the game, all the luck in the world could not have saved Sir Alex and his team this time, as it had done in their past two CL final appearances (see below)

Thank you Guardiola and Barcelona for playing the beautiful game how it is meant to be played, to brings tears of joy and loud laughter to the fans all over the world.

Another beautiful thing about this game was the fact that for all their money as two of the richest clubs in the world, there were no less than 6 Catalans in Barcelona's line up, and of course Guardiola himself is a Catalan. Some of the other players were also the product of their famed Youth Academy (e.g. Messi)

Whilst Sir Alex is undoubtedly a masterful manager and one in a million, most fans who do not support Manchester United as well as many Manchester United fans acknowledge that Manchester United, whilst commanded for their fighting spirit, were rather lucky to have won their last two CL titles:

- In 1999 against Bayern Munich: This has formally gone down as one of the most dramatic football matches of all time. Bayern went up 1-0 in the first half, then were unlucky not to go further ahead as they hit both a post and the bar. Then Manchester United unbelievably scored two goals in the 92nd and 93rd minutes of the 3 minutes added time of the match and won 2-1
- in 2008, the match ended up in the penalty shoot out. John Terry, the ever reliable hard working Chelsea Captain had the chance to convert the final penalty in the shoot out and win the match for Chelsea....and he slipped and missed his penalty...and Manchester United won the subsequent set of penalties and became the CL Champions once again.

So, all true football fans of the world rejoice! The magnificent Barcelona team comprehensively dominated and defeated the ever so lucky Manchester Utd. The fans of Chelsea and Bayern Munich who were so unlucky to lose the CL final to Manchester Utd in the past can smile again, and in this 10th anniversary of the heart aching defeat of Bayern, and the first anniversary of Chelsea's defeat look at the bright side: At last Manchester United's luck may have run its course, and the myth is no longer there!
Adios Alex!

Did Bayern give Klinsman a fair chance?

Bayern sacked their coach after ten months in charge.
Jurgen Klinsman is the legendary former National Manschaft (German National Team) striker, and Germany's coach in the last WC in their home soil. He took them to the semi finals with an attractive and attacking style of play which Germany had failed to show since the early 1990s when they were the World Champions (and Klinsman was one of their main players).

Klinsman had never coached a club prior to his posting at Bayern. The ins and outs of handling a big Football Club, its internal politics and fans' expectations are not an easy task and require amongst other factors past experience in dealing with egotistic stars and impatient fans, full management support and patience and vision by the coach.

Klinsman lacked the first three, and his vision is still subject to question. At the end he lost the support and the patience of both fans and management, and according to press reports, the respect of his stars in the dressing room.

Football Clubs like Bayern are big business. Bayern turns over in excess of $800m Australian dollars a year. (Not sure if the ENTIRE sporting market of all sports in Australia would reach that figure). This makes instant gratification more than just the pleasure of playing the simple game of football. The Club's management (and Bayern is in fact privately owned) become very nervous when results are less than 100% satisfactory! Simply because 10s of millions of dollars of potential revenue are at stake.

But can Klinsman be considered more of a victim of the commercialisation of football than anything else? Given a few more years, could he have been as successful and his reign as long as the likes of Wenger and Ferguson in Arsenal and Man Utd?

Whilst the answer is probably yes, the fact remains that ultimately his inability to get results out of crucial matches in Bundesliga (and the humiliation against Barcelona in the CL) was the main reason he lost his job. Amazingly, he became a national hero at the WC in 2006 because he managed to guide Germany to produce good results in the WC matches where it counted!

During his tenure at Bayern however, the team had many opportunities to go to the top of the table, and each time failed to produce the desired result (except in case of a lucky last minute 2-1 win over Hoffenheim before the winter break and of course some good results in the Champions League (CL). In many instances Bayern naively lost their lead or lost crucial points due to tactical inability to take control of these crucial matches.

Producing results in matches that count is a very crucial component of successful coaching at this level. e.g. it's Chelsea's 0-0 at Nu Camp, or Man Utd wining 1-0 at Porto and going through.

Klinsman in recent weeks had a few of these crucial matches and lost all of them! 4-0 to Barcelona, 5-1 to Wolfsburg, and 1-0 to Schalke in his last match in charge. His record of 8 wins 2 draws and 7 losses in all competitions since the winter break was simply not good enough for a team of Bayern's status. In fact, these heavy and embarrassing losses may have irreversibly damaged the psychological advantage Bayern had established against their rivals in Bundesliga by wining the double three times in the last four years.

It would be very ironic if job of coaching Bayern next goes to the Dutchman Frank Rijkaard, as speculated by the press. Rijkaard spat at Rudy Voller in an elimination match between Germany and Holland in the WC in 1990. The referee showed both players a red card. Klinsman, without his partner Voller, Klinsman scored and single handedly won the match 2-1 for Germans. They went on to win the WC and Klinsman became a superstar!

Rijkaard won the CL and Spanish Premiera League with Barcelona a couple of years ago before falling out with star players and losing his job. He would be a great choice to replace Bayern, but only if the Management shows more support and patience. Otherwise Klinsman's faith will await him too.

Champions League 2009

Those of us who were fortunate enough to watch the return quarter final leg between Liverpool and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge (London) witnessed one of the greatest and most exciting football matches of the past 20 years. The 4-4 draw confirmed Liverpool as one of the most entertaining teams of all time. They produced a 5-4 win in teh UEFA Cup final against Alaves of Spain in 2001. Then in 2005 fell behind 3-0 in the first half against Milan in the CL Final, and came back to draw 3-3 and win on penalties, and now the 4-4 draw with Chelsea! To put the icing on the cake, a week later they drew 4-4 with Arsenal at Anfield in a EPL match!

However, sadly Liverpool were eliminated. The semi final between Chelsea and Barcelona should be a great encounter. But, let's hope Barcelona beat Chelsea and go all the way and win this year's CL final. That would be a victory for Football, how it should be played and how entertaining it is. Barcelona are simply the best team in the world at the moment.

On the other hand, I hope Manchester United lose to Arsenal in the other semi final. Whilst I admire the club, Sir Alex and what they have achieved during his long reign, I can not believe how lucky they have been along the way! Look at their two CL triumphs! In 2001, Bayern were 1-0 up, hit both Man Utd's post and bar, and Man Utd won by scoring two goals in the 92nd and 93rd minutes of the added time at the end of the match. Then last year, John Terry, normally the most reliable player around had to score his penalty and win the CL for Chelsea in the final, and he slipped and missed!! man Utd went on to win the Cl on penalties in that match.

My prediction:

Manchester Utd vs Barcelona final

and Barcelona will give Man Utd a footballing lesson of a life time and crush them 3-1. That would make up for all their previous lucky wins!

Rick

Bayern may be able to salvage some pride

Thank God Bayern pulled themselves together and beat Frankfurt 4-0 on Saturday! After the disastrous (both tactical and team) performance at Nu Camp against Barcelona, only an emphatic win would have saved Klinsman.They now need to have a face saving (2-1 would do!) win on Tues night in the return leg against Barcelona in the Alianz Stadion in Munich, and then concentrate on finishing first or second in the Bundesliga.In the off season, they need to sort out their defence, hope their new Russian signing can fortify the midfield, and bring one or two more super stars to match the quality of Ribery.Goal Keeper: Buffon, Frey or Manuel NeuerDefence: Rumour is Cannavaro is interested. Breno needs to be loaned out, both to gain experience, and to see if he can in fact make it in Europe...so far has shown little promiseMidfield: the new signing is fineForwards: teh signing from Hamburg may not be enough as cover to Klose and Tony. sad to see Podolski leave but to be fair he's been treated poorly in the sense that he was never given enough regular first team starts to prove his worth to Bayern. Good luck to him at his beloved Koln next year.....wrong choice in my view....he should have moved to EPL.